Shock! The probability of human extinction in the global temperature in 2100 was 5%

From a statistical point of view, climate change events can not lead to human extinction at the end of this century. Recent recent studies have shown that the probability of human extinction in the next 100 years is affected by climatic conditions, which is a “low probability of high impact” event. It is agreed that the global average temperature of human society is much lower than about 2 degrees Celsius before the industrial revolution. Even if the global temperature rises more than 3 degrees Celsius in the next 100 years, an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is considered “dangerous”, meaning that it will pose a substantial damage to humans and natural systems. Global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius may lead to what researchers call “catastrophic” effects. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause the Earth’s climate system to accumulate heat and the rate of global warming is a key factor in the decision-making of scientists. According to foreign media reports, the next century, human civilization may be “catastrophic” climate change destroyed!… This is a shocking view of American researchers who say that the probability of human extinction is 5% in the next 100 years, which is a “low probability of high-impact” event. They said that global temperatures rise above 3 degrees Celsius, will lead to such catastrophic consequences. However, the global temperature rise above 5 degrees Celsius, “unknown” consequences will lead to the extinction of human beings we know. “People often think that this is a high-impact event with a probability of only 5%, and the probability of human extinction is very low, but the fact is that,” says Professor Vila Hadra Ramanathan, professor of climate and atmospheric science at the University of California, This is not the case, it is quite like you boarded a plane crash with a probability of 5%. “Researchers at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Marine Institute used analogies to illustrate the current state of the planet. The results show that if the global temperature rises from the current level to 2100, how will the change occur. “At present we will not ride a 5% chance of crashing the plane, but in the next 100 years, if the Earth’s climate is not effectively managed, our children and grandchildren are likely to face such a danger.” It is reported that this The risk assessment report is from the Paris Climate Change Agreement 2015. It is agreed that the global average temperature of human society is much lower than about 2 degrees Celsius before the industrial revolution. Even if the global temperature rises more than 3 degrees Celsius in the next 100 years, an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is considered “dangerous”, meaning that it will pose a substantial damage to humans and natural systems. Global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius may lead to what researchers call “catastrophic” effects. If the global temperature rises by 5 degrees Celsius, will lead to an “unknown” result, they think the consequences will be greater than the catastrophic, so that human survival is a serious threat. This rise in the threat of life reflects the global temperature rise of 5 degrees Celsius, will seriously threaten human health, or the emergence of species extinction, which at least the past 20 million years did not happen. Dr. Ramanathan and Associate Professor of Texas Agricultural University, Xu Yangyang, describe three strategies to prevent the most serious climate threat events. Take positive measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels and reduce emissions of short-term climatic pollutants such as soot, methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), while humans need to take active efforts to extract carbon dioxide from the air, spreading carbon dioxide to the atmosphere Before the isolation process. At the United Nations Climate Conference in November 2015, countries have agreed to a Paris deal with three efforts. Short-term climatic contaminants are named because they are only staying in the Earth’s atmosphere for several weeks to ten years, although they are more effective than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and carbon dioxide molecules stay in the atmosphere for 100 years or longer time. At the same time, Ramanathan stressed that most of the technologies used to significantly reduce short-term climate pollutant emissions have existed and have been applied in a number of developing countries, ranging from clean diesel engines to the acquisition of methane. The study was published in the recent publication of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (Allure)

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